管理学人20170812封面小说

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engine.jpg

那期的标题是 –
The death of the internal combustion engine
It had a good run. But the end is in sight for the machine that changed
the world
摩托之死
她现已辉煌,但以此早已变更世界的机器,末路已经模糊不清

“HUMAN inventiveness…has still not found a mechanical process to replace
horses as the propulsion for vehicles,” lamented Le Petit Journal, a
French newspaper, in December 1893. Its answer was to organise the
Paris-Rouen race for horseless carriages, held the following July. The
102 entrants included vehicles powered by steam, petrol, electricity,
compressed air and hydraulics. Only 21 qualified for the 126km (78-mile)
race, which attracted huge crowds. The clear winner was the internal
combustion engine. Over the next century it would go on to power
industry and change the world.
ea平台365bet体育在线,“以人类的开创力…居然距今还未找到能够取代马匹拉轻轨辆的主意”,
1893年一月,一家法兰西的报纸“小早报”遗憾的评论道。那是对准过年三月设置的从巴黎到鲁昂的非马拉车竞赛,102人参赛车辆,通过蒸汽,石脑油,电力,压缩空气和水力等等提供引力。最终只有21辆成功的形成了126英里(78公里)的竞技,收到民众真切的喝彩。内燃机是可想而知的赢家,在下个世纪他为工业提供动力,并更改了社会风气

The big end
But its days are numbered. Rapid gains in battery technology favour
electric motors instead . In Paris in 1894 not a single electric car
made it to the starting line, partly because they needed
battery-replacement stations every 30km or so. Today’s electric cars,
powered by lithium-ion batteries, can do much better. The Chevy Bolt has
a range of 383km; Tesla fans recently drove a Model S more than 1,000km
on a single charge. UBS, a bank, reckons the “total cost of ownership”
of an electric car will reach parity with a petrol one next year—albeit
at a loss to its manufacturer. It optimistically predicts electric
vehicles will make up 14% of global car sales by 2025, up from 1% today.
Others have more modest forecasts, but are hurriedly revising them
upwards as batteries get cheaper and better—the cost per kilowatt-hour
has fallen from $1,000 in 2010 to $130-200 today. Regulations are
tightening, too. Last month Britain joined a lengthening list of
electric-only countries, saying that all new cars must be zero-emission
by 2050.
美轮美奂的谢幕
内燃机已时日无多。电池科学技术的敏捷发展反倒让电动机受惠不少。1894年的法国巴黎从不一辆电轻轨驶出起跑线,部分原因就是因为每三十英里要有2个基站来换电池。现近来的电高铁,通过铅酸电池续航表现要好太多。本田Blot可以跑383公里。日产的听众近年来透过两次充电,就把Model
S开了超过一千海里。UBS银行表示,电火车的“总拥有资产”明年就足以和石脑油车持平,即使开发商依然是亏损的地方。它充裕乐观的预测,到2025年,电高铁的行销占小车销售的共同体比例会从现行的1%涨到14%。其余人的预测相对保守,但也以为随车电池越来越廉价和高速,每千瓦时的资金已经从二〇〇九年的一千日元降到今日的130-200卢比。囚禁方面未来也愈来愈严格。上个月英帝国加盟禁燃油小车国家集体,表示到2050年前有所的新车必须兑现零排放

The shift from fuel and pistons to batteries and electric motors is
unlikely to take that long. The first death rattles of the internal
combustion engine are already reverberating around the world—and many of
the consequences will be welcome.
从燃油与底特律活塞队(Detroit Pistons)到电池与电动机的对接大概不会有多长期。内燃机的第三声丧钟已经在世界范围内响起,随之而来的将会是过多令人愿意看到的影响

To gauge what lies ahead, think how the internal combustion engine has
shaped modern life. The rich world was rebuilt for motor vehicles, with
huge investments in road networks and the invention of suburbia, along
with shopping malls and drive-through restaurants. Roughly 85% of
American workers commute by car. Carmaking was also a generator of
economic development and the expansion of the middle class, in post-war
America and elsewhere. There are now about 1bn cars on the road, almost
all powered by fossil fuels. Though most of them sit idle, America’s car
and lorry engines can produce ten times as much energy as its power
stations. The internal combustion engine is the mightiest motor in
history.
要看清前方有哪些在等着我们,就要考虑内燃机是何许转移现代生活的。
富裕国家为了小车而重建,大力投资建造公路网,城郊随之诞生,还有购物为主,和小车餐厅。大约85%的United States工人用汽车来通勤。小车创立业也是占便宜腾飞的推进器并扩张了中产阶级的武装力量。无论是战后的美利坚合营国只怕其余地点都以那样。将来旅途大概有10亿辆车,几乎全体是借助化石燃料推进。固然它们半数以上都远在截止的情形,美利坚同盟国的小车和卡车引擎还是可以生出发电厂10倍的能量。内燃机是历史上当之无愧最为强劲的引力机械

But electrification has thrown the car industry into turmoil. Its best
brands are founded on their engineering heritage—especially in Germany.
Compared with existing vehicles, electric cars are much simpler and have
fewer parts; they are more like computers on wheels. That means they
need fewer people to assemble them and fewer subsidiary systems from
specialist suppliers. Carworkers at factories that do not make electric
cars are worried that they could be for the chop. With less to go wrong,
the market for maintenance and spare parts will shrink. While today’s
carmakers grapple with their costly legacy of old factories and swollen
workforces, new entrants will be unencumbered. Premium brands may be
able to stand out through styling and handling, but low-margin,
mass-market carmakers will have to compete chiefly on cost.
不过电力化给整个小车工业带来动荡不安。最好的品牌都以建立在她们的工程技术传承之上,特别是德意志。相对于现有的车辆,电火车要简明很多而且组件也少得多,它更像是架在轱辘上的微处理器。同时也意味着能够用更少的人来组装,以及更少的正式救助系统。在那个不生养电高铁工厂里,
工人担心她们或许会被开除。随着故障的滑坡,爱护以及配件市集也会萎缩。当前的汽车创设商被遗留下来的老旧的工厂和过剩的劳动力所裹挟,新的加入者却不曾那些负责。高端品牌大概可以依靠造型和操控依旧出色纷呈,不过低利润率的马自达化小车创建商都不得不靠资金控制来参加竞争

Assuming, of course, that people want to own cars at all. Electric
propulsion, along with ride-hailing and self-driving technology, could
mean that ownership is largely replaced by “transport as a service”, in
which fleets of cars offer rides on demand. On the most extreme
estimates, that could shrink the industry by as much as 90%. Lots of
shared, self-driving electric cars would let cities replace car parks
(up to 24% of the area in some places) with new housing, and let people
commute from far away as they sleep—suburbanisation in reverse.
咱俩只要,没错,人们想要拥有小车。电力牵动,伴随着打车服务以及机关驾驶技术,或然意味着全数小车会被“交通即服务”所代替,小车只是在须要时提供出游服务。在最极致的设想下,整个小车行业规模会浓缩九成。
许多共享的无人驾驶电车能够让城市把停车场(也部分地点停车场可以占到24%的面积)改成新的宅院,人们可以住的更远,在上下班途中睡觉,城市蒙城县化的取向一下子反了恢复生机

Even without a shift to safe, self-driving vehicles, electric propulsion
will offer enormous environmental and health benefits. Charging car
batteries from central power stations is more efficient than burning
fuel in separate engines. Existing electric cars reduce carbon emissions
by 54% compared with petrol-powered ones, according to America’s
National Resources Defence Council. That figure will rise as electric
cars become more efficient and grid-generation becomes greener. Local
air pollution will fall, too. The World Health Organisation says that it
is the single largest environmental health risk, with outdoor air
pollution contributing to 3.7m deaths a year. One study found that car
emissions kill 53,000 Americans each year, against 34,000 who die in
traffic accidents.
纵使抛开安全和机动驾驶不弹,电力拉动在环保和例行方面的功利也是大大的。给小车电池充电要比引擎燃油高效的多。依照米国国家能源爱慕委员会的布道,近来的电轻轨可以比天然气车减弱四分之一的碳排放。那一个数据随着电高铁的更为快捷以及电池组的尤为环保会变得更高。本地的空气污染也会减轻。世界卫生社团表示室外空气污染是最大的条件常规刀客,每年导致370万人长逝。一项研商发现,汽车排放每年会促成53000名英国人离世,而死于交通事故的却唯有3陆仟人

Autos and autocracies
And then there is oil. Roughly two-thirds of oil consumption in America
is on the roads, and a fair amount of the rest uses up the by-products
of refining crude oil to make petrol and diesel. The oil industry is
divided about when to expect peak demand; Royal Dutch Shell says that it
could be little more than a decade away. The prospect will weigh on
prices long before then. Because nobody wants to be left with useless
oil in the ground, there will be a dearth of new investment, especially
in new, high-cost areas such as the Arctic. By contrast, producers such
as Saudi Arabia, with vast reserves that can be tapped cheaply, will be
under pressure to get pumping before it is too late: the Middle East
will still matter, but a lot less than it did. Although there will still
be a market for natural gas, which will help generate power for all
those electric cars, volatile oil prices will strain countries that
depend on hydrocarbon revenues to fill the national coffers. When
volumes fall, the adjustment will be fraught, particularly where the
struggle for power has long been about controlling oil wealth. In
countries such as Angola and Nigeria where oil has often been a curse,
the diffusion of economic clout may bring immense benefits.
小车与独裁
说到汽油,
在米利坚大体四分之一的重油都费用在公路上。剩下的也有卓殊部分被用来加工那个提炼天然气和天然气的副产品。原油产业对于急需哪天见顶暴发了不同。荷兰王国皇室壳牌认为至少还有10年。在那以前前景将会在乎价格。因为没人想被甩在后头,地里留下一堆没用的原油。新的投资将会相差,越发是那多少个采油花费高的位置,比如北极圈。相反的,那多个产油国比如沙特,储备增加而且开采开支低,将会因为日子压力而不久开采。中东照样紧要,但比起以前已是一泻千里。虽说石脑油市镇还是存在,好用来救助电高铁充电,不平稳的油价还是会让那多少个指着碳氢化合物收入来敷衍国家开发的国度鸭梨山大。当必要下落时,调整的进程令人焦虑,尤其是那么些围绕着石脑油控制权来开展权力斗争的国家。在一些国度像是安哥拉和尼日巴塞尔,原油已经成为一种诅咒。那种对于经济的打击说不定反倒是个大的利好。

Meanwhile, a scramble for lithium is under way. The price of lithium
carbonate has risen from $4,000 a tonne in 2011 to more than $14,000.
Demand for cobalt and rare-earth elements for electric motors is also
soaring. Lithium is used not just to power cars: utilities want giant
batteries to store energy when demand is slack and release it as it
peaks. Will all this make lithium-rich Chile the new Saudi Arabia? Not
exactly, because electric cars do not consume it; old lithium-ion
batteries from cars can be reused in power grids, and then recycled.
与此同时,锂的价钱开端攀升。碳酸锂的价钱从2012年的肆仟比索一吨到今天当先1万4千日元,对于电动机要求的钴和稀土的须要也在增产。锂不光被用来给车提供动力:电力公司想要巨型电池以便在电力要求不多的时候存储电力,然后在用电高峰期时释放。那会让锂存储量丰硕的智利变为下3个沙特阿拉伯么?应该不太会,因为电火车并不间接消耗锂,车上旧的AAA电池可以在电网里再一次利用,然后回收

The internal combustion engine has had a good run—and could still
dominate shipping and aviation for decades to come. But on land electric
motors will soon offer freedom and convenience more cheaply and cleanly.
As the switch to electric cars reverses the trend in the rich world
towards falling electricity consumption, policymakers will need to help,
by ensuring that there is enough generating capacity—in spite of many
countries’ broken system of regulation. They may need to be the midwives
to new rules and standards for public recharging stations, and the
recycling of batteries, rare-earth motors and other components in “urban
mines”. And they will have to cope with the turmoil as old factory jobs
disappear.
内燃机已然辉煌,而且还是可以统治航运和航空业几十年。但在陆地上,电动机很快就足以一更廉价和更环保的办法提供自由与有利。向电火车的过渡会使得当前发达国家发电量下落的来头有所扭转,决策者或者需求资助确保有充足的发电能力,即使不少国度的幽禁并不周详。他们须要为集体充电站的成立,电池,稀土电机等任何“城市矿山”部件的回收等等推行新的方针和标准。他们也只可以应对旧工厂倒闭所带来的失去工作难题

Driverless electric cars in the 21st century are likely to improve the
world in profound and unexpected ways, just as vehicles powered by
internal combustion engines did in the 20th. But it will be a bumpy
road. Buckle up.
正如内燃机小车在20世纪所做的那么,21世纪的无人驾驶电火车将会以深切的且不能预想的办法推进世界的腾飞。但前路坎坷,还需谨慎。

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