教育学人20170812封面小说

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engine.jpg

那期的标题是 –
The death of the internal combustion engine
It had a good run. But the end is in sight for the machine that changed
the world
摩托之死
他现已辉煌,但这几个已经变更世界的机器,末路已经模糊不清

“HUMAN inventiveness…has still not found a mechanical process to replace
horses as the propulsion for vehicles,” lamented Le Petit Journal, a
French newspaper, in December 1893. Its answer was to organise the
Paris-Rouen race for horseless carriages, held the following July. The
102 entrants included vehicles powered by steam, petrol, electricity,
compressed air and hydraulics. Only 21 qualified for the 126km (78-mile)
race, which attracted huge crowds. The clear winner was the internal
combustion engine. Over the next century it would go on to power
industry and change the world.
“以人类的创始力…居然于今还未找到可以取代马匹带轻轨辆的章程”,
1893年1七月,一家法兰西的报章“小早报”遗憾的评论道。那是指向过年八月办起的从法国首都到鲁昂的非马拉车竞赛,102位参赛车辆,通过蒸汽,汽油,电力,压缩空气和水力等等提供引力。最终唯有21辆成功的姣好了126英里(78公里)的交锋,收到民众由衷的喝彩。内燃机是强烈的得主,在下个世纪他为工业提供动力,并更改了社会风气

The big end
But its days are numbered. Rapid gains in battery technology favour
electric motors instead . In Paris in 1894 not a single electric car
made it to the starting line, partly because they needed
battery-replacement stations every 30km or so. Today’s electric cars,
powered by lithium-ion batteries, can do much better. The Chevy Bolt has
a range of 383km; Tesla fans recently drove a Model S more than 1,000km
on a single charge. UBS, a bank, reckons the “total cost of ownership”
of an electric car will reach parity with a petrol one next year—albeit
at a loss to its manufacturer. It optimistically predicts electric
vehicles will make up 14% of global car sales by 2025, up from 1% today.
Others have more modest forecasts, but are hurriedly revising them
upwards as batteries get cheaper and better—the cost per kilowatt-hour
has fallen from $1,000 in 2010 to $130-200 today. Regulations are
tightening, too. Last month Britain joined a lengthening list of
electric-only countries, saying that all new cars must be zero-emission
by 2050.
美轮美奂的谢幕
摩托已时日无多。电池科学和技术的快捷升高反倒让电动机受惠不少。1894年的法国首都从不一辆电轻轨驶出起跑线,部分缘由就是因为每三十公里要有一个基站来换电池。现近年来的电轻轨,通过AAA电池续航表现要好太多。福特Blot可以跑383英里。本田的听众近日经过一回充电,就把Model
S开了跨越1000公里。UBS银行表示,电高铁的“总拥有资产”二零一七年就足以和汽油车持平,固然开发商依旧是亏损的动静。它尤其开朗的算计,到2025年,电火车的行销占小车销售的共同体比例会从昨日的1%涨到14%。其余人的前瞻相对保守,但也以为随车电池越来越廉价和连忙,每千瓦时的资本已经从二零一零年的1000法郎降到明天的130-200比索。幽禁方面现在也尤其严谨。上个月英帝国加盟禁燃油小车国家团体,表示到2050年前有所的新车必须落成零排放

The shift from fuel and pistons to batteries and electric motors is
unlikely to take that long. The first death rattles of the internal
combustion engine are already reverberating around the world—and many of
the consequences will be welcome.
从燃油与活塞到电池与电动机的衔接或许不会有多长期。内燃机的第一声丧钟已经在世界范围内响起,随之而来的将会是很多让人乐于看到的熏陶

To gauge what lies ahead, think how the internal combustion engine has
shaped modern life. The rich world was rebuilt for motor vehicles, with
huge investments in road networks and the invention of suburbia, along
with shopping malls and drive-through restaurants. Roughly 85% of
American workers commute by car. Carmaking was also a generator of
economic development and the expansion of the middle class, in post-war
America and elsewhere. There are now about 1bn cars on the road, almost
all powered by fossil fuels. Though most of them sit idle, America’s car
and lorry engines can produce ten times as much energy as its power
stations. The internal combustion engine is the mightiest motor in
history.
要看清前方有哪些在等着大家,就要考虑内燃机是怎么改变现代生活的。
富裕国家为了小车而重建,大力投资建筑公路网,城郊随之诞生,还有购物为主,和汽车餐厅。大约85%的米国工人用汽车来通勤。小车制造业也是经济提升的推进器并伸张了中产阶级的部队。无论是战后的美利坚联邦合众国可能其他地点都是那般。现在旅途大概有10亿辆车,大概全体是依靠化石燃料推进。即便它们大多数都处在为止的情形,美利坚合众国的小车和卡车引擎依然可以生出发电厂10倍的能量。内燃机是野史上当之无愧最为强大的动力机械

But electrification has thrown the car industry into turmoil. Its best
brands are founded on their engineering heritage—especially in Germany.
Compared with existing vehicles, electric cars are much simpler and have
fewer parts; they are more like computers on wheels. That means they
need fewer people to assemble them and fewer subsidiary systems from
specialist suppliers. Carworkers at factories that do not make electric
cars are worried that they could be for the chop. With less to go wrong,
the market for maintenance and spare parts will shrink. While today’s
carmakers grapple with their costly legacy of old factories and swollen
workforces, new entrants will be unencumbered. Premium brands may be
able to stand out through styling and handling, but low-margin,
mass-market carmakers will have to compete chiefly on cost.
不过电力化给任何小车工业带来动荡不安。最好的品牌都是起家在他们的工程技术传承之上,尤其是德国。相对于现有的车子,电高铁要简单很多并且组件也少得多,它更像是架在轮子上的电脑。同时也象征可以用更少的人来组装,以及更少的正儿八经救助系统。在那么些不生育电火车工厂里,
工人担心他们或然会被开掉。随着故障的回落,爱护以及配件市场也会衰退。当前的小车成立商被遗留下来的老旧的厂子和过剩的劳引力所裹挟,新的加入者却从没这个负责。高端品牌或许可以凭借造型和操控依然精彩纷呈,不过低利润率的Honda化小车创立商都只好靠资金控制来涉足竞争

Assuming, of course, that people want to own cars at all. Electric
propulsion, along with ride-hailing and self-driving technology, could
mean that ownership is largely replaced by “transport as a service”, in
which fleets of cars offer rides on demand. On the most extreme
estimates, that could shrink the industry by as much as 90%. Lots of
shared, self-driving electric cars would let cities replace car parks
(up to 24% of the area in some places) with new housing, and let people
commute from far away as they sleep—suburbanisation in reverse.
大家只要,没错,人们想要拥有汽车。电力牵动,伴随着打车服务以及电动驾驶技能,或许意味着所有汽车会被“交通即服务”所代表,小车只是在急需时提供骑行服务。在最极端的考虑下,整个汽车行业规模会浓缩90%。
许多共享的无人驾驶电车可以让城市把停车场(也部分地点停车场可以占到24%的面积)改成新的宅院,人们得以住的更远,在上下班途中睡觉,城市南陵县化的趋势一下子反了恢复生机

365bet手机app下载,Even without a shift to safe, self-driving vehicles, electric propulsion
will offer enormous environmental and health benefits. Charging car
batteries from central power stations is more efficient than burning
fuel in separate engines. Existing electric cars reduce carbon emissions
by 54% compared with petrol-powered ones, according to America’s
National Resources Defence Council. That figure will rise as electric
cars become more efficient and grid-generation becomes greener. Local
air pollution will fall, too. The World Health Organisation says that it
is the single largest environmental health risk, with outdoor air
pollution contributing to 3.7m deaths a year. One study found that car
emissions kill 53,000 Americans each year, against 34,000 who die in
traffic accidents.
不畏抛开安全和机关驾驶不弹,电力牵动在环保和正常方面的益处也是大大的。给汽车电池充电要比引擎燃油高效的多。依据美利坚合众国国家资源珍贵委员会的布道,方今的电轻轨可以比汽油车减弱54%的碳排放。这一个数额随着电高铁的尤其火速以及电池组的愈加环保会变得更高。本地的空气污染也会减轻。世界卫生社团表示室外空气污染是最大的条件常规杀手,每年导致370万人谢世。一项切磋发现,小车排放每年会导致53000名美利坚同盟国人离世,而死于交通事故的却只有34000人

Autos and autocracies
And then there is oil. Roughly two-thirds of oil consumption in America
is on the roads, and a fair amount of the rest uses up the by-products
of refining crude oil to make petrol and diesel. The oil industry is
divided about when to expect peak demand; Royal Dutch Shell says that it
could be little more than a decade away. The prospect will weigh on
prices long before then. Because nobody wants to be left with useless
oil in the ground, there will be a dearth of new investment, especially
in new, high-cost areas such as the Arctic. By contrast, producers such
as Saudi Arabia, with vast reserves that can be tapped cheaply, will be
under pressure to get pumping before it is too late: the Middle East
will still matter, but a lot less than it did. Although there will still
be a market for natural gas, which will help generate power for all
those electric cars, volatile oil prices will strain countries that
depend on hydrocarbon revenues to fill the national coffers. When
volumes fall, the adjustment will be fraught, particularly where the
struggle for power has long been about controlling oil wealth. In
countries such as Angola and Nigeria where oil has often been a curse,
the diffusion of economic clout may bring immense benefits.
小车与独裁
说到原油,
在米利坚几乎三分之二的原油都开销在公路上。剩下的也有卓殊一些被用来加工那个提炼汽油和柴油的副产品。石油产业对于要求什么时候见顶暴发了争持。荷兰王国皇家壳牌认为至少还有10年。在那之前前景将会在乎价格。因为没人想被甩在末端,地里留下一堆没用的石油。新的投资将会相差,更加是那么些采油花费高的地点,比如北极圈。相反的,那一个产油国比如沙特,储备丰硕而且开采花费低,将会因为时间压力而不久开采。中东照样紧要,但比起在此以前已是一泻千里。虽说天然气市场照旧存在,好用来援救电高铁充电,不安静的油价依然会让那几个指着碳氢化合物收入来应付国家开发的国度鸭梨山大。当必要下跌时,调整的历程令人担忧,越发是那么些围绕着石油控制权来举办权力斗争的国度。在有些国家像是安哥拉和尼日瓦伦西亚,石油已经变为一种诅咒。那种对于经济的打击说不定反倒是个大的利好。

Meanwhile, a scramble for lithium is under way. The price of lithium
carbonate has risen from $4,000 a tonne in 2011 to more than $14,000.
Demand for cobalt and rare-earth elements for electric motors is also
soaring. Lithium is used not just to power cars: utilities want giant
batteries to store energy when demand is slack and release it as it
peaks. Will all this make lithium-rich Chile the new Saudi Arabia? Not
exactly, because electric cars do not consume it; old lithium-ion
batteries from cars can be reused in power grids, and then recycled.
与此同时,锂的价格开头攀升。碳酸锂的价钱从2011年的4000法郎一吨至今跨越1万4千英镑,对于电动机需求的钴和稀土的需求也在新增。锂不光被用来给车提供引力:电力集团想要巨型电池以便在电力要求不多的时候存储电力,然后在用电高峰期时释放。那会让锂存储量丰硕的智利变成下一个沙特阿拉伯么?应该不太会,因为电火车并不直接消耗锂,车上旧的AAA电池可以在电网里再一次行使,然后回收

The internal combustion engine has had a good run—and could still
dominate shipping and aviation for decades to come. But on land electric
motors will soon offer freedom and convenience more cheaply and cleanly.
As the switch to electric cars reverses the trend in the rich world
towards falling electricity consumption, policymakers will need to help,
by ensuring that there is enough generating capacity—in spite of many
countries’ broken system of regulation. They may need to be the midwives
to new rules and standards for public recharging stations, and the
recycling of batteries, rare-earth motors and other components in “urban
mines”. And they will have to cope with the turmoil as old factory jobs
disappear.
摩托已然辉煌,而且仍可以统治航运和航空业几十年。但在陆地上,电动机很快就足以一更廉价和更环保的章程提供自由与有利。向电轻轨的连通会使得当前发达国家发电量下落的方向有所扭转,决策者大概须求扶助确保有丰裕的发电能力,就算不少国家的幽禁并不周密。他们须求为集体充电站的创造,电池,稀土电机等其余“城市矿山”部件的回收等等推行新的政策和专业。他们也不得不应对旧工厂倒闭所牵动的失掉工作难题

Driverless electric cars in the 21st century are likely to improve the
world in profound and unexpected ways, just as vehicles powered by
internal combustion engines did in the 20th. But it will be a bumpy
road. Buckle up.
正如内燃机汽车在20世纪所做的那么,21世纪的无人驾驶电高铁将会以深入的且无法预想的主意牵动世界的前行。但前路坎坷,还需谨慎。

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