《经济学人20170812封面文章》- 内燃机之大

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engine.jpg

这期的题是 –
The death of the internal combustion engine
It had a good run. But the end is in sight for the machine that changed
the world
摩托之很
外曾经辉煌,但此早已变更世界的机器,末路已经隐约

“HUMAN inventiveness…has still not found a mechanical process to replace
horses as the propulsion for vehicles,” lamented Le Petit Journal, a
French newspaper, in December 1893. Its answer was to organise the
Paris-Rouen race for horseless carriages, held the following July. The
102 entrants included vehicles powered by steam, petrol, electricity,
compressed air and hydraulics. Only 21 qualified for the 126km (78-mile)
race, which attracted huge crowds. The clear winner was the internal
combustion engine. Over the next century it would go on to power
industry and change the world.
“以人类的创力…居然至今还未找到会取代马匹推动车辆的方法”,
1893年12月,一贱法国之报纸“小日报”遗憾的评论道。这是对过年7月开办的打巴黎顶鲁昂的非马拉车比赛,102各类参赛车辆,通过蒸汽,汽油,电力,压缩空气和水力等等提供动力。最后就来21部成功的到位了126公里(78英里)的竞,收到民众由衷的欢呼。内燃机是显著的胜利者,在下个世纪他吗工业提供动力,并转移了世界

The big end
But its days are numbered. Rapid gains in battery technology favour
electric motors instead . In Paris in 1894 not a single electric car
made it to the starting line, partly because they needed
battery-replacement stations every 30km or so. Today’s electric cars,
powered by lithium-ion batteries, can do much better. The Chevy Bolt has
a range of 383km; Tesla fans recently drove a Model S more than 1,000km
on a single charge. UBS, a bank, reckons the “total cost of ownership”
of an electric car will reach parity with a petrol one next year—albeit
at a loss to its manufacturer. It optimistically predicts electric
vehicles will make up 14% of global car sales by 2025, up from 1% today.
Others have more modest forecasts, but are hurriedly revising them
upwards as batteries get cheaper and better—the cost per kilowatt-hour
has fallen from $1,000 in 2010 to $130-200 today. Regulations are
tightening, too. Last month Britain joined a lengthening list of
electric-only countries, saying that all new cars must be zero-emission
by 2050.
华的谢幕
摩托已时日无多。电池科技的高速提高反倒被电动机受惠不丢。1894年之巴黎未曾同辆电动车驶出由跑线,部分缘故就是是坐各个三十公里要发出一个基站来换电池。现如今的电动车,通过锂电池续航表现而好极多。雪佛兰Blot可以跑383公里。特斯拉的粉最近透过一样坏充电,就管Model
S开了跨越1000公里。UBS银行代表,电动车的“总有资产”明年即使得同汽油车持平,尽管开发商还是亏损的状态。它挺开朗的前瞻,到2025年,电动车的行销占据汽车销售的总体比例会从现在之1%水涨船高至14%。其他人的预测相对保守,但为道随车电池更廉价和快,每千瓦时的成本就打2010年之1000美金降到今日的130-200美金。监管方现在呢越加严厉。上个月英国进入禁燃油汽车国家集体,表示至2050年前有的新车必须兑现零排放

The shift from fuel and pistons to batteries and electric motors is
unlikely to take that long. The first death rattles of the internal
combustion engine are already reverberating around the world—and many of
the consequences will be welcome.
从燃油和活塞到电池及电动机的对接可能未见面生出多久。内燃机的首先名誉丧钟已经当世界范围外响起,随之而来的将见面是成千上万给人口愿意看到底熏陶

To gauge what lies ahead, think how the internal combustion engine has
shaped modern life. The rich world was rebuilt for motor vehicles, with
huge investments in road networks and the invention of suburbia, along
with shopping malls and drive-through restaurants. Roughly 85% of
American workers commute by car. Carmaking was also a generator of
economic development and the expansion of the middle class, in post-war
America and elsewhere. There are now about 1bn cars on the road, almost
all powered by fossil fuels. Though most of them sit idle, America’s car
and lorry engines can produce ten times as much energy as its power
stations. The internal combustion engine is the mightiest motor in
history.
使拘留清前方发生啊在齐正我们,就要考虑内燃机是哪些转现代生活之。
富裕国家为汽车要重建,大力投资建造公路网,城郊随之诞生,还有购物为主,和汽车餐厅。大概85%的美国工因此汽车来通勤。汽车制造业为是事半功倍前行之推进器并扩大了中产阶级的枪杆子。无论是战后之美国可能其他地方还是这么。现在半路大约有10亿辆车,几乎任何凡指化石燃料推进。尽管它们大部分还远在停止的状态,美国之汽车与卡车引擎依旧可以生发电厂10倍之能。内燃机是历史及当之无愧最为强大的动力机械

But electrification has thrown the car industry into turmoil. Its best
brands are founded on their engineering heritage—especially in Germany.
Compared with existing vehicles, electric cars are much simpler and have
fewer parts; they are more like computers on wheels. That means they
need fewer people to assemble them and fewer subsidiary systems from
specialist suppliers. Carworkers at factories that do not make electric
cars are worried that they could be for the chop. With less to go wrong,
the market for maintenance and spare parts will shrink. While today’s
carmakers grapple with their costly legacy of old factories and swollen
workforces, new entrants will be unencumbered. Premium brands may be
able to stand out through styling and handling, but low-margin,
mass-market carmakers will have to compete chiefly on cost.
唯独电力化给整汽车工业带来动荡不安。最好之品牌还是白手起家以她们之工程技术传承之上,尤其是德国。相对于现有的车子,电动车要简明过剩同时组件为丢得多,它再也像是劫持在车轮上的处理器。同时也意味可以据此重新不见的食指来组装,以及重复少之正规化救助系统。在那些不生育电动车工厂里,
工人担心她们唯恐会见让裁掉。随着故障的削减,保养与配件市场吧会见衰退。当前底汽车制造商被遗留下来的老旧的工厂和无数的劳动力所裹挟,新的参与者也并未这些负责。高端品牌可能得凭借造型与操控依旧精彩纷呈,但是低利润率的大众化汽车制造商都不得不借助资金控制来介入竞争

Assuming, of course, that people want to own cars at all. Electric
propulsion, along with ride-hailing and self-driving technology, could
mean that ownership is largely replaced by “transport as a service”, in
which fleets of cars offer rides on demand. On the most extreme
estimates, that could shrink the industry by as much as 90%. Lots of
shared, self-driving electric cars would let cities replace car parks
(up to 24% of the area in some places) with new housing, and let people
commute from far away as they sleep—suburbanisation in reverse.
我们如果,没错,人们怀念使备汽车。电力推进,伴随在打车服务及活动驾驶技能,也许意味着所有汽车会给“交通便服务”所取代,汽车只是以用经常提供出行服务。在绝极致的考虑下,整个汽车行业规模会缩短90%。
许多共享的无人驾驶电车可以为市将停车场(也部分地方停车场可以占及24%底面积)改成为新的宅院,人们得以告一段落的重新远,在上下班路上睡觉,城市郊区化的大势一下子相反了回复

Even without a shift to safe, self-driving vehicles, electric propulsion
will offer enormous environmental and health benefits. Charging car
batteries from central power stations is more efficient than burning
fuel in separate engines. Existing electric cars reduce carbon emissions
by 54% compared with petrol-powered ones, according to America’s
National Resources Defence Council. That figure will rise as electric
cars become more efficient and grid-generation becomes greener. Local
air pollution will fall, too. The World Health Organisation says that it
is the single largest environmental health risk, with outdoor air
pollution contributing to 3.7m deaths a year. One study found that car
emissions kill 53,000 Americans each year, against 34,000 who die in
traffic accidents.
就算抛开安全及活动开无弹,电力推进以环保及正常方面的利吧是大大的。给汽车电池充电要比引擎燃油高效之大多。根据美国国家资源保护委员会的说法,目前底电动车可以于汽油车减少54%底碳排放。这个数就电动车的更便捷与电池组的逾环保会转换得重新胜似。本地的空气污染也会减轻。世界卫生组织表示室外空气污染是最好充分之环境健康杀手,每年造成370万人口去世。一码研究发现,汽车排放每年会导致53000叫美国口死亡,而生于交通问题的倒独自来34000人数

Autos and autocracies
And then there is oil. Roughly two-thirds of oil consumption in America
is on the roads, and a fair amount of the rest uses up the by-products
of refining crude oil to make petrol and diesel. The oil industry is
divided about when to expect peak demand; Royal Dutch Shell says that it
could be little more than a decade away. The prospect will weigh on
prices long before then. Because nobody wants to be left with useless
oil in the ground, there will be a dearth of new investment, especially
in new, high-cost areas such as the Arctic. By contrast, producers such
as Saudi Arabia, with vast reserves that can be tapped cheaply, will be
under pressure to get pumping before it is too late: the Middle East
will still matter, but a lot less than it did. Although there will still
be a market for natural gas, which will help generate power for all
those electric cars, volatile oil prices will strain countries that
depend on hydrocarbon revenues to fill the national coffers. When
volumes fall, the adjustment will be fraught, particularly where the
struggle for power has long been about controlling oil wealth. In
countries such as Angola and Nigeria where oil has often been a curse,
the diffusion of economic clout may bring immense benefits.
汽车和独裁
说交原油,
在美国大概三分之二的石油还花费于公路及。剩下的呢来相当一部分让用来加工那些提炼汽油与柴油的副产品。石油产业对急需何时见顶产生了矛盾。荷兰皇壳牌认为至少还有10年。在那之前前景将见面在乎价格。因为尚未人感念为甩在背后,地里养一堆积没因此底原油。新的投资以见面供不应求,尤其是那些采油成本大之地方,比如北极圈。相反的,那些产油国比如沙特,储备丰富而开采成本没有,将见面盖时压力使不久开采。中东仍重要,但于由以前都是衰老。虽说天然气市场还存在,好用来帮忙电动车充电,不安宁的油价仍会受那些因着碳氢化合物收入来敷衍国家支付的国家鸭梨山颇。当需求下降时,调整的进程让丁堪忧,尤其是那些绕在石油控制权来展开权力斗争的国度。在片国度像是安哥拉同尼日利亚,石油都成平等种诅咒。这种对经济的打击或反倒是只大之利好。

Meanwhile, a scramble for lithium is under way. The price of lithium
carbonate has risen from $4,000 a tonne in 2011 to more than $14,000.
Demand for cobalt and rare-earth elements for electric motors is also
soaring. Lithium is used not just to power cars: utilities want giant
batteries to store energy when demand is slack and release it as it
peaks. Will all this make lithium-rich Chile the new Saudi Arabia? Not
exactly, because electric cars do not consume it; old lithium-ion
batteries from cars can be reused in power grids, and then recycled.
还要,锂的价位起攀升。碳酸锂的价格由2011年的4000美元一吨及如今超1万4千美金,对于电动机需要的钴和稀土的需求也以增产。锂不光被用来吃车提供动力:电力企业想使巨型电池以便在电力需求不多之上存储电力,然后在用电高峰期时放。这会让锂存储量365bet手机app下载增长的智利变为下一个沙特阿拉伯么?应该无极端会,因为电动车并无直消耗锂,车上旧的锂电池可以当电网里再使用,然后回收

The internal combustion engine has had a good run—and could still
dominate shipping and aviation for decades to come. But on land electric
motors will soon offer freedom and convenience more cheaply and cleanly.
As the switch to electric cars reverses the trend in the rich world
towards falling electricity consumption, policymakers will need to help,
by ensuring that there is enough generating capacity—in spite of many
countries’ broken system of regulation. They may need to be the midwives
to new rules and standards for public recharging stations, and the
recycling of batteries, rare-earth motors and other components in “urban
mines”. And they will have to cope with the turmoil as old factory jobs
disappear.
摩托已然辉煌,而且依然可以统治航运和航空业几十年。但以陆上上,电动机很快就可等效更廉价和重环保之法门供自由和有利。向电动车的接会使当前发达国家发电量下降的样子有扭转,决策者可能需要支援确保发生足够的发电能力,尽管不少国度之监管并无圆满。他们用吗公充电站的成立,电池,稀土电机等其余“城市矿山”部件的回收等等推行初的方针和专业。他们为只能承诺针对老工厂关所带来的失业问题

Driverless electric cars in the 21st century are likely to improve the
world in profound and unexpected ways, just as vehicles powered by
internal combustion engines did in the 20th. But it will be a bumpy
road. Buckle up.
刚好而内燃机汽车在20世纪所召开的那么,21世纪的无人驾驶电动车将会晤盖深远的且无法预料的道推动社会风气之上扬。但前路坎坷,还索要小心。

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